Foreign Has moved unfortunately from one of the Charts that looked um really good to a Chart that is now at the brink of Collapsing Um it is still possible to break out From here don't get me wrong but it is Really really the last possibility to Move up now or never well never is nah Never is wrong because if I say never it Means then it would die which I don't Think it will Um but we are still in this sort of wave Pattern here where we could from the June low See this here as the wave one and the Move down here as a larger ABC Correction Um but this this must be it right I mean The low at 53 dollars was exactly the Support that we had here in this wave to End of June and it is also exactly the 88.7 percent Fibonacci retracement level At basically 53 a drop below that level Would massively increase the risk of Invalidation massively which would mean That we're actually going to follow The pink wave count so don't get Confused here there are two wave counts On this chart one is a bullish one That's the yellow one Um actually you have to change that into Yellow as well Um the yellow one is the bullish one and
Just see you know yellow as well okay And the pink one is the bearish one and They are both possible and I have to Tell you that it the bullish scenario is Now on really really thin ice because we Have pulled back to the 88.7 percent Fibonacci retracement level and that is Usually the level where if we get to That level You know we and we hold it it's okay It's still fine Um the problem starts when you break in A wave two Which this could be in yellow if you Break below the 78.6 flip level breaking Below it is not necessarily a major Problem but it increases the risk of Invalidating the bullish scenario and The problem starts and or carries on When you stay for a longer period below The 78.6 FIB level as we seem to be Doing because we have been retesting This now from below and we've been Getting rejected and this move down here Is also not very good Um now as long as we're holding the 88.7 FIB level okay the problem that we have Now here Is that this is really the last chance To move up Um any break below the 53 level will Take us down to 45 and if we then lose That I mean you know we get that close To invalidation it's probably not going
To work out anymore Um from experience I mean whenever I Look at this stuff Um I can hardly recall a successful Breakout from the Especially on a lower time frame yeah I Mean in looking at the bigger time from The larger time frame a lot of altcoins Drop to the 88.7 FIP level or lower Unfortunately because still a very young Space but in the lower level patterns a Wave 2 that comes down that much is Unlikely usually it doesn't happen very Often so it's all about likelihoods as Well so yeah at the moment I'm getting a Bit Um yeah I'm getting conscious of the Fact that Also what's been moving up from here Down there you know hasn't really been Bullish not too much at least and it all Comes down to we need to hold 53 dollars To have a chance to Rally in the yellow Wave count and as a signal that we start To move higher and follow this yellow Wave count I would want to see a break Above well at least back above the 60 Level back above the 78.6 percent flip Level and um then follow the wave one Right at the moment I can't see it yet Um so this would be the yellow card in The yellow card we would reverse now we Would really have to reverse now Um we can count five wave down five
Waves down So Would actually say this is either the Way three finished and the way four here And then we come down in But this is a bit too small for a way Full So yeah this could spread out a bit Further or we come down directly and Have an extended wave three you know This is possible but the point is now if We lose 53 dollars it opens the door Into the 30 range This would still not Um this would still not threaten an Overall long-term bullish perspective For Ave However if we drop below the 23 dollar Level it would and that all has to do With Fibonacci levels as well Um I didn't I did put it on the charti Before That a drop below the 60 level and my Wi-Fi is a bit slow here today for some Reason that a drop below I'm just going To talk around it there you go I'm gonna Drop below the 60 level wouldn't make me Focus more on the bearish case and as Promised with doing that just because we Dropped below that 78.6 flip level so The point is here 53 dollars is the key Support losing that He's probably going to take us below 45 Below the June low into the region
Around 30 maybe even a bit lower and Below trading three dollars the long Term chart gets bearish which is not a Good sign you don't want to be in that Place Um but until then you know we can still Focus on higher but the point is that Um so long term on higher yeah but it's Basically 53 is key support dropping Below that will probably take us into The region of around 30 or the 30s Um and any drop below 23 dollars will Harm the long-term chart So yeah that's basically the way it Comes down to Um we have pulled back to support but I Do not yet see a signal that we're Turning around that would only be Obtained if we drop or if we break above 60 dollars Yeah that's my update about Ave hope you Like the update if you did please hit The like button leave a comment and Subscribe and if you really like the Content then please check out the Channel membership thanks a lot for Watching bye