Foreign [Music] Welcome to another update video about Ave we haven't had an update here on the Channel for a while but I do of course Update on Telegram and Discord the Channel members regularly about Ave Um And here with the latest price dip here It seems to me that we are heading down For one more low There are two wave counts here and I'm Going to tell you what needs to happen For the bullish wave count which is the Yellow one and what needs to happen for The bearish one for the pink one to be More more likely and what are the Invalidation points so Um looking at this structure here Ave Obviously has given up sort of on on Bullish potential um well not entirely But it became one of The more let's say endangered charts Yeah Um when we dropped below this yellow Support box as I indicated here on the Chart a drop below 60 dollars would make Me fall on the focus more on the bearish Case we had a really good setup here Yeah uh we had a wave one up really nice It was actually looking like one of the Best charts and then we came down in a Wave two This was the scenario
Um until the 9th of November when FTX Collapsed and I think it looked really Good it could have really worked out so We had to wave one up a wave two down This was then possibly the the beginning Of the wave three yeah that's how it Looked like and then the 9th of November Happened here oh no we had we had here The idea of a one two setup but yeah we Completely broke down on the 9th of November so it didn't work out Um the imminent Buddhist setup it was Looking really really good it was at Times one of the best looking charts Here unfortunately we broke down we can Still see it as a one two setup That would be the bullish interpretation Here but we would need to hold above 45 Dollars which is getting unlikely now Yeah so the idea is in this Wave 2 then We had a wave a a wave B and here wave C To the downside But it's getting critical now yeah it's Getting difficult so there's two Scenarios now in the short term that we Look at obviously as we dropped below The yellow support box even if it was Only for a short period we came down a Little bit too low for a likely wave two So that is when I started to focus more On the bearish count and that is Actually my primary expectation I have To tell you that probability is here lie Very close together so if I had to give
The bearish case uh probability I would Probably give it a 55 to 60 percent And then obviously the bullish one a uh 40 to 55 sorry a 40 to 45 percent Probability Okay what would be the bullish case Let's maybe start with a the less likely One so the bullish case would be that we Actually came down here in a c wave Already yeah and that we finished here The Wave 2 and that we are moving up in The pink no sorry in the yellow wave Count the yellow wave count is a five Wave structure we can count this as a Five wave move Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 and wave 5. So what does that mean that means what Happens now will determine the course of Ave For the next few weeks Because if we now hold critical support Then we could look at this being indeed A wave one to the upside now a wave 2 to The downside which would be followed by Away three would look like this one up Two down Three up four down five up Which level do we need to hold to make This possible or even likely So we would need to hold The following support area We would need to hold the area between 58.75 and 53.80 that is the area between The thick the 50 fib retracement and the
78.6 retracement if we go below 5380 For me the pink count has even more Strength now because below the 78.6 flip Level the bullish Hound loses a lot in Likelihood and probability The problem is that this move up And looking generally at the context for Me it is more likely to come down once More however what you need to understand We can interpret the move up as a Five-way structure as well so as a wave One and it is now this retracement this Pullback this move down which is going To decide okay so keep an eye on this Support area that I told you about And how would the bearish count work out Well the bearish count would work out as Follows For me it looks like we came down now in The pink wave 5 and created a wave one Hero Wave 2 and if we break below 60.30 this could be the breakdown in Wave 3 or 5 then away four or five and Away five of five And then it's all about how low do we go And do we stop above the June uh above The June low which was at 45.70 if we do That then we could steal from here Attempt a rally But let me tell you if we come down that Far it is actually quite likely That we will make a new low and might Actually get into the let's say the 30
Area Okay so this is where we are with Ave it's all about this support area Now Is it going to hold or not the support Area that I defined for you And um Some Some of you might want to scale in here Maybe look at the possible long trade or And that is probably what might make More sense that's only my view because We do not really have an established Uptrend anymore it has become quite Well unlikely that this is still pushing Higher if anybody wants to trade this Loan it might be useful to actually wait For here a one two setup to play out and Then off the Wave 3 which would follow To wait for the one two setup in that One in that wave three and the reason is If you have a one two one two setup the Second one two setup basically confirms To you that the trend has shifted the First one yes indeed but you obviously Would be catching a folding knife Because you don't know yet you would Just buy in a support area which could Have of course fail but if this one two Setup works out We reverse in the support area to the Upside and then get another one two set Up here it would be a much better Probability trade because the trend has Then shifted back to the upside That's at least my thoughts about it so
Yeah that's my update about Ave I hope You like the update if you did please Hit the like button leave a comment and Subscribe and if you really like the Content then please check out the Channel membership thanks a lot for Watching bye [Music] Thank you