Foreign Welcome to another update video about Bitcoin Bitcoin also shows some weakness Over the last few hours and has so far Failed to break out in fact the latest Move to the upset he was only in three Waves so I'll take the White Wave count Out that did fail so far even though it Hasn't made a new low yet but um this Doesn't really look convincing anymore Because we're hovering around the 16 500 Level and had we really been in the way Three to the upside here in yellow Already then it's Um well it should have really moved Quite strongly then in that case Um Yeah at the moment at the moment at the Moment I'm still thinking Wave 2 might Still be ongoing Um because we haven't come down as low As I think ethereum yet and there is Still a chance that in this sort of Bullish breakout pattern we are still Just resetting a little bit lower before We start Um with Bitcoin obviously also here We've got a bullish and a Paris scenario Take you through the bullish one first Because as long as the support level Here is holding which goes down all the Way to sixteen thousand and seventy Dollars we can focus generally on higher Um
It's not a high confidence pattern I Have to say that as well it's not like It's a very very clear and very very High probability pattern but it is a POS Possible long trade setup from this Support area and we talked about that But it's not high probability why is it Not high probability because this move To the upside here did not really work Out very well in proportions it is one Of the few charts we can actually count Five waves up Um Bitcoin but then first of all the Proportions aren't great the way three Here was a bit too short wave 5 wasn't Great it was also a bit too short and The move down was a bit too deep so all Of that added together doesn't really Give us a lot of confidence so one two Yes possible and we're now in the Red Wave three that could take us to around 20K Um in that wave three in red we've got Obviously our sub waves and the idea was That we have yellow wave one yellow Wave 2 that maybe yellow Wave 3 has already Started from here second from here from That low around sixteen thousand three Seventy but so far it's failed to Develop an Impulse it's only three up so Far Um and then we came down so we didn't Hold critical support Yeah so what I'm doing I think this is
Not an ABC anymore I think we're gonna Get here the possible one more leg up Down sorry so it would be not ABC but Similar to what I've done on the Ethereum charts a w x and then the Y Wave so we will set a little bit lower Here though we now have a risk we get Quite close to the previous low At 15780 if we so if we already go below The yellow support box it will increase The risk of invalidation therefore Obvious we need to have the Green Wave Count on the radar which would lead to One more lower low also very probable We just need to see we need to take it Level by level with Bitcoin at the Moment and in this wave why we have A B c we're going to move the Wave A here So with a down with B up could still go A bit higher absolutely Um so the wave B will really only get Unlikely if we push above that high of 16 000 Um no 17K this ring is this swing I here Then the wave B will get unlikely but it Could still push higher until we get There and then a wave C down and that Shouldn't really go below the 16 070 Level which doesn't mean it's won't do It it just means in this pattern if this Is a w x y it shouldn't really go below That level and then before we get there
Somewhere from this support box I would Like to see this with three to the Upside Um and again Target for that is that the Red Wave 3 can take us to around 20K This yellow Wave 3 depends on a little Bit on where we actually go down to Um to give you an a rough idea Could take us to around 18 200 so yeah I'm not convinced we're going up Directly an early breakout would be Possible and evidence for that would be Obtained if we get above the resistance Area here the red zone that would be at 17 000 to 100 if we can make a breakout Above that level it would indicate Further upside all the way up to I said 18.2 k Um also we still have the Green Wave Count on the radar it would just simply Suggest that we came down here in a it's A different count Um But that we have started with From from the top here Which was at around 21.4 K we moved down In the third wave We are now moving up in the fourth wave Maybe it's already in here yeah or maybe It will make a higher high somewhere Here and then make one more lower this Is unfortunately possible and this is Possible or even likely as long as we
Stay below one certain level That is the 50 Fibonacci retracement That is around eighteen thousand five Forty so as long as we stay below that Level so even if we move up here in a Wave three in yellow It could still just be A wave C of four Why a wave C or four well If we say we came down in a wave three Here to 15 600 then it could be that This was just an a wave We've come down in a wave B And the wave C to the upset will take us To the 50 retracement and then we come Down but only if we move above that 50 FIB retracement substantially in a five Wave move Then it would indicate it's not a wave 4 Anymore and we are most likely in a Breakout which means We won't really know even if a Wave 3 in Yellow is pushing up here this could Still be the Wave 4 in green Yeah only until we really see that 18540 Level break and we finish your ideally Way for it with Wave 3 in red and then Ideally also put away four and five in Place only then it's much more clear That Um we have hit the low already okay Until then the the additional lower the Risk of a one more low persists and it Could take us into the region between 14
And 15K Okay and that's my update about Bitcoin Hope you like the update if you did Please hit the like button leave a Comment and subscribe and if you really Like the content then please check out The channel membership thanks a lot for Watching bye