Foreign Welcome to another update video about Bitcoin today it's well it's getting More and more interesting with Bitcoin I Think we're getting into a very very Interesting phase of this Market at the Moment Um Bitcoin again is at the next decision Point and it's getting getting quite Interesting I think um first we should Take a look here at the four hour chart Just to talk about the different Scenarios that are possible I don't Really have a bullish account available Um there is a possible one that I also Talked about in the previous video but The the bullish one is mainly short-term Bullish Um it would not necessarily generate a Breakout from here even though it's Possible of course anything is possible In these markets but we are too far away From confirming that the bottom has been In lower has been in Um Bitcoin would need to do much more And other options are more likely Especially as we are taking the look Um or taking a look at the chart from an Elite wave point of view here context is Always very important and the overall Chart context is not yet suggest that a Law has been made Bitcoins also Short-term micro counts continue to be a Mess that has to do with bitcoin's
Structure in this entire bear market so Far Um or at least in the last few months Since the June low the structure has Been an absolute mess that does not Really give us a lot of confidence into Any bullish scenario therefore it's Actually good if Bitcoin makes new lows Just to tidy up the mess and ethereum Has performed much better since the June Low and again we just see the you know Sort of the the decoupling of Bitcoin And ethereum because Bitcoin of the June Low has made new lows and ethereum is Actually still holding higher lows so Again it's just they are not well they Are correlated to a degree but you can't Say for example that because Bitcoin Makes a new low ethereum has to make one As well now let's take a look at Bitcoin There are a couple of scenarios here on The four hour chart for the further well Further development of the chart Generally here Um we continue to follow this scenario That has guided us basically since I Think August September that from the High here around 25k we came down in an A wave we moved up in a b wave and we're Currently in this C wave the c-wave is An ending diagonal and in this ending Diagonal we've got a five wave structure One two Three
Four Five Okay so that is suggesting we should see One more low this is not according to Proportions yeah I would say we have a Chance now in the short term to create a Larger wave four and we should then come Down once more lower as per this count And the other count I'm following but it Doesn't really have a Major Impact it's Very very similar Um it just has an impact in terms of Well maybe maybe you know sort of Short-term targets right Um That is suggesting that we had a wave One here this is a two here a three hero Four and a five without the ABC that's Possible as well it doesn't really have A great impact Um and it doesn't really make a great Difference I just want to make you aware That you can also get away without doing This as an ABC because the ABC if you Count a fifth wave as an ABC it means That the entire move down off the high Back in November has to be counted as a Three-way structure that is possible Um but I just want to emphasize that Medium term long term on the higher Degree chart different possibilities Exist but all of them or most of them Still Point to another low for Bitcoin Primarily in the region around 14 to 14
And a half okay but short term upside Still possible we are again at one of These in one of these periods where we Could see some short-term upside Um and again let's talk about options Here now the Important is so let's let's just first Of all off the most recent High yeah Let's take a look at the chart because This was this wave too high I mentioned We came down in my opinion in a wave Three so that's for me a given Um the point is now Where is this wave for this waveform Which is a corrective wave a retracement Consisting of ABC it can also be a Triangle but most likely ABC The way 4 could have been here so we say We came down in three we made the way Four and if that's the case we are Currently coming down in the fifth wave Without seeing this upside which means Um again I can count this as a three Wave structure if we say we are in an Ending diagonal the wave five Um then the wave 5 is basic well the Wave 5 is a five wave move so we would Say we've got here the wave let me think One Two no let me think we came down Came out yeah one two I would say and Then next is a wave three a four and a Five this is sort of the imminent Bearish count where we are stuck below
Resistance we're gonna be stuck below This resistance line and we're gonna Come down straight away the sub wave Count here suggests very clearly Let me talk about that as well That's why this yellow box is there Because this is the count that we talked About before Um let me just think where do we start So wave one two and then in this wave Three we would consider the wave three Is a three wave structure yeah three Wave structure a B c and we're now in the resistance area Of wave B that's why we've got this Yellow box here we haven't broken it yet And therefore it is still possible to Come down in this C wave we can talk About a Target so that means very very Simply as long as we stay below 16800 it is still very much possible and Likely to come down straight away Yeah I'm skeptical about this move up Here I said that before it's not it is You can count it as five waves yeah but Of course it's also a matter of Interpretation you can also get away With just counting this as a three-way Structure Um which I can show you in a minute but This is still possible as long as we are Below this or in this yellow box you Know Um and that would be an imminent move
Down so and this is basically the Breakout Point 16.8 k Um at least the first one the next one Would be here the 17 000 120 level the wave too high okay so This is the imminent let's call it Imminent bearish count without Um in case we don't break resistance Okay hope that was clear then we've got The count which is going to be valid Should we break resistance and we would Then count this move up as a five wave Structure by the way in terms of Um It it is for me quite a straightforward Five-way structure the problem is you Can count it as three waves as well Um the problem is that this Wave 3 was Not the ideal length it was a bit too Short and if I count it as a leading Diagonal I would need one more leg up Yeah Um we had a very short one yes so again It increases probability here I could Say this was a three a four because in a Diagonal pattern each of these sub waves Is an ABC so you've got here ABC in one ABC in 2 A B C and three okay And then we come down at four and have Moved up in five uh it's not an ideal Structure so I'm still very much Um a bit skeptical about this move up And therefore you know you've got this Yellow resistance area where I think
We're going to see reversal should of Course we break through it it would be a Bullish signal and would make this Um count that I just showed you with Move down less likely so the other count And that will become the primary should We break above resistance should we Break above 16.8 k Then we're looking at this Um and that we say no Wave 4 wasn't in Here we are still in a way four it's Just a larger a B c pattern and the wave C is an impulse And we would have to say that Um oops that this impulse is now Unfolding with the wave one being this Five wave move we would come down next In a wave two move up in the three come Down and full move up in a five and this Would finish off most likely a wave four Um it could also be something more Bullish but then I would need further Confirmation as we go along so very Simply put my preferred scenario would Be that we Um So for the imminent sell-off if we don't Break resistance that we come down now Anyway so ideally I in no scenario I Would like to see a breakout ideally we Come down now Um in the more bullish count we would Find support in this area between Fifteen thousand seven forty and sixteen
Thousand fifty or seventy so if we find Support in this area when we retrace and Again it is an ideal time to turn around Now I'd say that before maybe there'll Be one more leg up but we're getting Close to and you know sort of a period Where we could really turn around here Um And if we do that If this is a corrective move down and if We find support in this area it would Make a Wave 3 in C to the upside very Likely and that would be a trade that Could be taken long Should you see that we come down Impulsively and of course I keep you up To date and try to keep the channel Members on Discord and telegram up to Date as much as possible but if we come Down and passively and break below this Fifteen thousand seven twenty level Pretty much then it will get very Unlikely that we are still going to move Up then we are most likely going to make A new low yeah and would then come down In this Wave 3 that I showed you in the Beginning and Um We then talk about let me just think That it was one two A b So Target wise We would then talk about round about 14k Actually and maybe not that low the
Problem is if this is a diagonal pattern Down then you can't really necessarily Use the 1.618 extension 4083 these are Unreliable we might talk about 14 and a Half K the 1.236 or the one to one ratio Here for 15K yeah so these are the key Targets to the downside if we don't Break resistance if we break resistance We're talking here about prices around I give you the let's say the worst case Of around 17 680. So yeah that's my update about Bitcoin I'm skeptical about this move up still Especially as long as we are still in This yellow resistance area where we Ideally turn around and then this will Be the next decision Point Um where we have a chance to find Support if we go through it we'll Probably make new lows in the Target Area or in the area I mentioned okay and That's my update about Bitcoin I hope You like the update if you did please Hit the like button leave a comment and Subscribe and if you really like the Content then please check out the Channel membership thanks a lot for Watching bye Thank you