Foreign Video about Bitcoin we take a look at What's going on here on the shorter time Frame I did make a different scenario now the The primary scenario here bear in mind That on the lower time frames those Micro counts are very very volatile they Are fragile they can change quite Frequently whereas this scenario I've Been showing you on the four hour chart Has basically been unchanged for months Okay and that just as explanation Because a lot of people always Ask you know wave counts they can change Quickly why and well the explanation is Just very easy that we can only analyze The data that we have and all the data We have is the price information if we Get new data with new price information We have to change the wave count and the Lower level wave counts the lower degree Wave counts they confirm the higher Degree wave counts but this scenario I've shown you here I've been showing You really for many many weeks or months Has not changed on the four hour chart But on the our chart Those micro counts as I say often They Do change frequently because of course The day-to-day stuff is much more Volatile this is where you see a lot of Intraday movements intraday volatility And this can impact the wave counts the
Ones on the four hour chart the daily or Even the weekly they are very very Stable they change less often okay just As an example because not everybody is So familiar with the Elliot waves but as A Trader as an analyst we have to remain Flexible okay very very important Anybody who's not flexible will not Survive in these markets okay but let's Let's see where we are we are in my Opinion still in this fifth wave to the Downside this is a four hour chart Um this scenario is still that in the Fifth wave we should make one more low Um and uh here the idea is that this was A wave a we came down in September we Moved up in a b wave and we're now Moving down in a c wave in a wave five The C wave consists of five waves one Two three four five So let's zoom in and take a look at the Hour chart I did align the lower level Wave count now with the ethereum count The reason is because of the corrective Bounds to the upside that we've seen so Let's take a look overall as I said I'm Still expecting one more low for Bitcoin Um the idea is let me show the two Scenarios which are of relevance Yesterday I showed you three Um the imminent the imminent bullish Scenario where we have a good chance to Rally from exactly from here I don't think it deserves too much
Attention anymore the reason is that we Moved down yesterday From the high at 17 000 420 we moved Down in five waves and the balance that We expected which also happened but the Balance is only of corrective nature so We're going to talk about that scenario But it's not really on the chart anymore So the overall idea is still that the Move of the 9th of November to the upset Was an a wave we then came down in a b Wave and we're now moving up in a c wave A five wave structure this five wave Structure is not yet complete and it Should ideally move higher it doesn't Need to But it should ideally one two three four Five into the region between 1819 maybe 20K and then from here we should ideally Make a new low that would be the ideal Scenario but I showed you already on the Weekend and warned you as we approach The red resistance box that in a Different wave pattern also called Wxy pattern the pattern is already full We don't necessarily need to go any Higher so that is when it became Apparent that from here we could already Get a breakdown just important in terms Of risk management that's why I Highlighted it okay so there is no need For Bitcoin to push any higher we're Just still below resistance so be aware Of that
Okay but let's zoom in and let's take a Look at the key scenario that we just Talked about In this five wave structure to the Upside my view is now And that's the mobile view that this was A wave one this was a wave two we are Now in this Wave 3 in yellow But within this Wave 3 we have now Completed only a wave one This he could be a wave 2 pullback and We would afterwards move up in a Wave 3 There will be a four and a 5 of yellow Wave 3. Yesterday I told you My other scenario that would allow for An imminent push to the upside which is Of course still possible we would then Move from here and break seventeen Thousand four hundred and ten dollars Then I would consider the move here as a Wave 4 and we will push higher once more In a five The problem with that is that we've come Down in five waves Yesterday when I made my video we were Here around sixteen thousand nine Hundred I told you that I do expect in Any case now a move to the upside which Is happening But I told you that we need to see is This going to be an impulsive move Or is it a corrective pullback At the moment to be honest there is not
Too much strength in here And at the moment I'm looking at this as An ABC pattern Um it could still rally through for a 17 000 410 and in that case I would expect A rally into the 18K region but it's not Really the focus anymore the move up Currently looks corrective and therefore I'm looking at it as an ABC correction Because the move down was five waves so It can be a wave a Or it could even be something more Bearish something I also showed you Basically a five wave move to the Downside one two Three four five that could eventually Take us down into the um Into the 14 to 14 and a half K region we Need to be aware of that because the Move up could already be finished showed You this wxy scenario that could have Completed this uptrend and um we now Have two competing scenarios one is this Five wave move to the to the downside Which would be the bearish one The other one is this um one two setup Where we're now coming down in a Three-way structure ABC So these are the two competing scenarios Okay Um Now the question is how high will this Wave be go And because it's a zigzag pattern a
Zigzag because the Wave A is a five wave Move It should not be a very strong Retracement so we have now reached the 38.2 percent FIB level Which is 17080. That is sort of what you would expect as A minimum for a b wave Um ideally it goes down between the 17082 level and the 17 000 210 level As we already reached the 38.2 percent Flip level at 17082 we have to be ready For a move down confirmation for the Move down will be obtained below 16870. And then Target for the move down Based on what we can currently see here On the market in the charts Is the one-to-one ratio that would be Sixteen thousand five seventy Yeah The 1.618 extension is quite far down at Sixteen thousand sixteen thousand two Forty that could also still be a wave Two but it would be the bearish stretch Target So in this Wave 2 scenario here those Were the targets Um if we go below If we go below The 78.6 FIB level of the move wall of The wave one yeah if we come down that Much and go substantially below it I'm Not talking about a week on the intraday
But I'm talking about a substantial Break Then this Wave 2 will get very unlikely And we have to assume that we come down Straight away into the region between 14 And 14 and a half K yeah so I therefore expect Generally now a stronger pullback either In the wave C or in a five wave Structure to the downside it is still Possible to Rally above 17410 straight Away but it's not the primary Expectation anymore but also we need to Be at the moment in the current Structure here on the one hour chart we Need to be a bit flexible with Bitcoin Um this all what I've told you does not Affect the wave count on the four hour Chart because Wave 4 minimum expectations have been Met So this one is basically done it doesn't Need to go any higher it can and it Should ideally but it doesn't need to go Any higher and we're waiting for another Low for Bitcoin okay that's my update About Bitcoin hope you like the update If you did please hit the like button Leave a comment and subscribe and if you Really like the content then please Check out the channel membership thanks A lot for watching bye