Foreign [Music] Video about Bitcoin yeah Bitcoin doesn't Make it easy for us uh certainly not Um but if you were on board in the last Video then you know that I talked about I might change my wave count Um no major changes But um we want to have a clearer picture Of this possible so-called diagonal Pattern which is evolving here Um In a diagonal pattern we have less Reliable micro counts yeah so those Microwave cards which I sometimes show You are less reliable in corrective Counts or in diagonal patterns because In the end these are very similar for Example here the yellow count shows you A diagonal pattern which still suggests Upside but in ABC wave patterns here A B C in wave c Um so these are however less reliable a Market gets more reliable when it is in An impulse But at the moment we seem to have here a Clearly corrective wave pattern we are Still in the channel so we identified a Few days ago this um or even last week We identified this channel It is um yeah basically a channel that Constrains the diagonal wave pattern Here and upward sloping Channel And so far we've come back in this
Possible B wave to the support level of The channel I did show you in the Previous video this scenario that this Could also be a one two one two one two One two setup Looking at it again it's just getting Too unrealistic you know I mentioned it In many videos before that as soon as You have more than You know more than three one two setups In a chart it just gets too unreliable So I had to change the wave count the Outcome though is quite similar short Term because even here in a one two Setup yeah which we had here on the Chart as possibility Um We were looking at this support area Sort of um between 12 17 200 I think I Just need to double check or did I one Second Yellow is the one two setup we looked at At this area between um 16 000 I think it was 880 where it Started one second yeah 16 880 and 17 200. so we've basically come nearly into The area already seen a small reaction We haven't quite touched the channel yet But then again the support but then Again we need to be Um sometimes a little bit flexible with Those trend lines because I'm not sure How valid the trend line is that I have Put on the chart here because there's
Obviously various ways you can draw such Channel support Um like we could only focus on the Wicks Yeah uh sorry on the candle close here Here we had a touch Point not so sure About this it's a bit messy but we Obviously reacted to it so I'll leave it Like that at the moment because we've Seen a reaction but um my larger Expectation would be to get deeper into This yellow support area now With the latest wave count with it being Um probably a diagonal pattern So I put on the chart two patterns um The yellow one is short-term more Bullish some people asked me in previous Videos am I bullish no I'm not bullish Um I clearly recognize that we have here Either a corrective wave pattern or a Diagonal they are both not super Reliable and in both scenarios I would Expect afterwards another low for Bitcoin in the region between 14 and 14 And a half K we've got two two Possibilities now with this latest Change of wave counts and uh people Sometimes ask why do you change the wave Cones so much well it is very clear that We are still in a bear Market we are in A situation here where we have Corrective wave patterns and if you Understand Market structure or if you Want to understand Market structure Which basically these wave waves
Represent Then you need to understand that in both Scenarios when you have a corrective Wave pattern like an ABC or a diagonal Which in the end is very similar because In a diagonal pattern as well you have ABC sub waves often yeah Um These are less reliable and you have to Be flexible with them yeah let's say if We have impulsive wave structures which Is the ideal scenario then those waves Get very for very very predictable Um and it makes the job as an analyst I Wouldn't say easy but compare it to Corrective patterns yes probably fairly Straightforward fairly easy with Corrective wave structures and diagonals We have to be much more flexible it is Absolute important to have alternative Wave patterns here that we can fall back To if we are in a diagonal pattern or a Corrective wave pattern because these Are just less reliable in diagonals for Example the chart does it here very Little to for example Fibonacci targets Yes it does sort of appear or relate to It but not in the same way that it would In an Impulse um So that leaves us as a Trader two Options either stay out of the market Completely Or just basically deal with less Probable trades yeah
Um these are market conditions in which Many Traders fail and these are market For uh structures where a lot of Um Traders just frustrate because there Is a lot of volatility yeah you set your Stop loss sudden you get suddenly you Get kicked out and so on therefore it is So important to have basic risk Management in place to understand that You shouldn't go all in for example yeah Manage your trades understand what you Can Um bet on you know in each trade what is Your position sizing where should you Set your stop losses you need to have Your plan and especially in times like These um it is not the time to be super Aggressive in trades in my opinion yeah I would not I would not use leverage in The current situation or at least not a Lot of Leverage Um if you want to use leverage at all I Wouldn't I wouldn't do it in the current Market conditions and it's certainly not A signal that we have bottomed yet yeah So that's the decision either you are Weathering through a lesser likely Trades which um You know it it is and it is a decision Yeah and you know you basically win you Basically win uh how do you say you win Half the battle if you know that those Situations in which we currently are They produce less probable trades then
At least you know that and you can um You can plan for that to a degree yeah Um but yeah you know other than that This scenario is still valid it's um Even though I have changed here the sort Of micro count or the general account of This wave um pattern still the Short-term upside potentially hasn't Changed we have dropped yesterday Um stronger than it would be ideal in an Impulsive wave pattern therefore I had To go to a diagonal and I see this move Down currently as a b wave now the move Down could be or could have been Um or could be in a still unfolding B Wave yeah I looked at it earlier I think What we could have had here was an a Wave then here B wave triangle and we're Coming down now in wave C of b Um Let me just change that a little bit the Lower degree ABC of beam and then we Could rarely in a c-wave and that would Be a five wave move important here for This B wave would be to hold support Between 16750 and uh 17 300 now with this latest Count should we lose this support level We can fall back into this ABC pattern That would allow for a lower Um B wave yeah and we would most likely Get into the region between fifteen Thousand nine hundred and sixteen Thousand three eighty bear in mind in
The red count we do not expect much more Upside yeah there would be a c wave to The upside but based on this count we Would only get three basically three Waves here and after the third wave it Could smash us down quite strongly and The more bullish count is the yellow one Where we will move up in five waves that Will also produce a lower low but Possibly a little bit higher than the Red count so in the red count I could See us come down that is embedded in a Different higher level pattern but I Could I could see us come down maybe Into 12K region maybe even a little bit Lower the yellow count would take us Into that ideal range between 14 and 14 And a half K afterwards ultimately it Will it will all depend on what happens After this wave pattern is complete how Is the pullback going to look like yeah Is it going to be impulsive or is it Going to be corrective to the downside But yeah interesting times Um some people have asked me what is the Best time to to scale in again you have To trade your plan I can't tell you how To do it but what I would do I mean Scaling in these support areas is Certainly one way of doing it now again I'm not telling you to do it I'm not Giving any promises that this is going To work this is where I see in these Scenarios the market turn around
Um but scaling in these support areas is One way of doing it setting a stop loss Below the support area uh is possible And then Trying to join the rally but again what I have just said is that um it is an Extremely difficult Market Um I hope you understand that navigating This is not easy well you will know that If you're in this market and Um You know the in a diagonal pattern which This unfortunately unfortunately has Morphed into we have to be a bit Flexible because this cannot be a one Two one two one two one two this would Be way too bullish okay I'll keep you Updated hopefully you like the update if You did please hit the like button leave A comment and subscribe and if you Really like the content please check out The channel membership also if you're Interested maybe check out the trading Course on the website more Cryptoonline.com by the way we cover in That trading course topics like you know Risk management Um position sizing um where to set your Stop-loss and things like that it's not The pure Elliott wave course it's more Foundational trading course and also Make sure that you follow us on Instagram and Twitter thanks a lot for Watching bye
[Music] Thank you