Foreign Continues to to fail to Rally here in a Third wave of a third that would be the Bullish scenario you know that my view Is that the Buddhist scenario is Certainly not the primary expectation And yesterday we looked at a possible Sub count here or sub wave count for the Bullish scenario which would be a wave One to the upside in a leading diagonal A wave two to the downside and then we Should enter wave three rally yeah away Four and five and in this Wave 3 we had Here possible one two setup Um but again it wasn't validated again And I just yesterday in the video Mentioned to you that those lower level Wave counts here especially on the Bullish scenario for Ada are not Reliable because they get invalidated And invalidated which just again Confirms my view that we are here not in A bullish scenario but I still need to Show the bullish scenario to you because We are very close to a key support level At 30 cents or 29 Points 29.6 cents the low from the 21st of November and of course When you pull back to a support level Like that Um the you know the reward the possible Reward is certainly quite High compared To the risk however as I mentioned Before the probability that a long trade
Works out from here is is not Necessarily High because it there are Various issues with this count like a Leading diagonal not very reliable a Wave two pull back deeper than ideal and The constant failure of ADA to Rally in A third wave or third so We still have that um bullish scenario Open here but as you can see it did con It did again fail to to realize we Talked yesterday about this descending Channel in my late video from yesterday And I said look either it rallies from Here it's probably gonna break down and Obviously it broke because this was a Decisive moment I mean we're in this Channel this could have bounced a little While but the breakout to the upside Would have at least indicated that we Have a chance to Rally in a third wave Of a third now the fact that out of such A pattern here we're even breaking to The downside is is concerning Um we're not concerning it just confirms My primary wavecon basically which is Down Um I mean could this still be the Buddhist count yes but again look at This I mean In in this count now it would again not Be a w x y it would be an ABC because We've we've got five waves down Um which I'm going to show to you now as Well
But um If this again is a one two setup here in This on the small scale uh this is Retraced way too much so no confidence At all in a bullish account here how Would um how would the wave C look like Just to show you as well because some People Some people are interested in um The Wave counts how they would work out in My opinion from the wave B high up here We moved down into one up into two this Would be a three This would be a four and this would be a Five no very straightforward actually Um No overlap between waves one and four so You can actually count it as a proper Impulse in a way of c Um but yeah it would need to go up from Here or will probably completely break Down because this is an extremely Decisive moment We can't drop much more and then we've Invalidated this one two setup so a Little bit more drop yeah it would need To drop below 29.9 cents and we've Completely invalidated this one to set Up as well and then that would Point Even more or put even more emphasis on The bearish count which um yeah I'm Gonna sketch out the detailed count now As well Um so
We already talked about this being here Probably a wave one This being a wave 2 and that we're Moving down in a three moving up in the Four come down to five however I already Also mentioned my concerns here Yesterday that far away three to the Downside the move to the downside is not Impulsive enough for me so it looks Still very choppy also if I look at it From a bearish point of view by the way Everybody who's new who's my target for The Wave 3 is around 26 27 cents for the Wave 5 down there around 22 23 cents at The moment Um but yeah you know I've got I've got My concerns with that Um So let me take the bullish sub waves out Don't really need them anymore Um This is certainly still possible the White count is the bullish one yeah but In terms of the bearish count because we Also fail to really strongly sell off to The downside Um I thought about I thought about changing maybe the high Level assumption not too much yeah it Wouldn't change the trend or anything But do you remember that we talked about This as an ending diagonal you know the Move that started basically end of May That this was wave one this was a two
This was a three there's a four that um We're now in this fifth wave down and Each of these sub waves consist of an ABC as an ending diagonal so also hear The wave 5 is an ABC pattern that's the Bearish count a B now the idea was let me zoom in Let me zoom in The idea was in the bearish count That we've seen within wave 5 Already an a wave here then we had a b Wave triangle and the idea was to break Down in a c wave in a five wave move However It so far hasn't really followed through Impulsively So I had one idea Um Which in my opinion looks more likely These days with the latest price Information we have and the fact that ADA has failed to Rally through to the Downside and it doesn't Um It doesn't uh It doesn't change anything in the high Level assumption it just means That I have to let me just think so this Triangle I would take that out Let me just think I just don't want to just don't want to Make a mistake yeah so I would move that A wave here actually And then I would move the B wave
Somewhere here so take the bullish count Out so that actually the B wave is still On for unfolding and ongoing as a Triangle Yeah Um That would explain why we haven't really Rallied to the downside impulsively So we take out here some of those sub Waves So what would then be the um the subwave Count so we're looking then at the count For the B wave And my idea is that we had the idea here That the B wave was triangle but it was Probably just the way four triangle Coming down in five to finish off here The a wave So the idea is that it's most likely Going to be here triangle Um with the idea that this was an a wave In a triangle We are coming down in possibly B already Bottomed here We are now going to move up in or this Might have been the C already This could have been D and maybe one More high in e Of B there would at least be an Explanation you know why we are not Really rallying yet to the downside Impulsively Um we've got three ways up we've got Here a uh ABC wave down in B we've got
The wave C up which is also an ABC wave D down ABC and we should now see one More wave up in an e wave now it's also Not the most beautiful triangle I have To admit yeah but it's all possible Because we haven't broken the beginning Yet now we haven't broken that a wave Yet to the downside And to the upside we haven't broken this A wave okay so important is that the C And the E waves stay below the a wave And the B and the D waves stay above the A wave that makes sense Um And um eventually then if the wave e is Put in here maybe one more retest of the Channel from below I mean that would Make sense then breaking down from here And that would then be that impulsive Move down in the Green Wave C which Would be a five wave move so just to Sketch out how it would ideally work out From the e-wave peak which would be the Wave B Peak as well we should then see a Five wave move down that is how it you Would normally expect such an Elliott Wave triangle to work out a b c d e it's Not the most beautiful triangle but you Can count it as an Elliott wave triangle So based on that we would be in the a in The late stages of it Would make sense because you know the Market can't move sideways Forever at Some point you will get the breakout and
Then you get normally quite an impulsive Move so it will be interesting so what Are the what would be the the signal That um We are indeed breaking to the downside Well that would be a break of the B wave Low that is at 29.9 cents and the signal That the triangle is invalid would be a Break above 32.8 cents okay that's my Update about Adar hope you like the Update if you did please hit the like Button leave a comment and subscribe and If you really like the content then Please check out the channel membership Thanks a lot for watching bye Thank you