Foreign I think a few things have changed here I Think we are Um heading for lower now because we Dropped too much yeah we dropped below The ideal 78.6 FIB level therefore I Just made my channel members aware of Discord and telegram that I exited a few Minutes ago 10 minutes ago my long Position that I opened yesterday I still Have one open that I opened a few weeks Ago but the most imminent one I exited Just because it's it's been dropping too Far you know with trading you need to Know when it's time to leave and losing Trades are part of the business it's Completely normal and it's just that you Shouldn't let them run too long Um but obviously it's up to you what you Do of course we can still go up from Here yes but for me it's not um It's not anymore you know I'm out Um as I said I still have the that Position open that I opened a few weeks Ago so that's fine still I'll leave that Open Um just in case we do go up but that's Sort of more my core position the one That I opened yesterday was more like a Short-term long trade Um but no the Assumption didn't work out We went below the key support box which Means we dropped too low which means the Alternative wave pattern gets more
Likely which is now the primary Um and of course the bullish case hasn't Been invalidated here but I think before We go bullish we're going to drop much Lower Um and let's take a look at that we take A look at this and say that from the low Which was here in may we moved up in a Wave one that has been the sort of the Story for the last few weeks anyway then We came down here Um First and the idea was initially that This could have been the wave too low And that we then started to move up in a Wave one but then the FTX drop will Cause trouble We came down even lower and we explored The idea well okay We dropped to that level was this maybe Um the low from which we can start new Bullish potential and there was a nice Long position here took some profits up Here made you aware but it has then Um dropped a bit too much because this Could have been in the bullish Interpretation a so-called one two setup And here another one two setup but as You can clearly see we dropped below That support area and we're now Retesting it from below and this support Area for this second one two setup We take a look at that I need to measure from
Here we've dropped below the 78.6 flip Level and we are sustaining below it at The moment of course it's still possible To Rally from here but for me it's Getting too risky too unlikely and Because of that I'm now looking at another wave pattern I'm saying that it's for me now more Likely as we've broken the key imminent Bullish potential that this year was Just a wave W I need to take the blue count out by The way That this was at wave w we moved up in a Wave X and we're now coming down in a Wave y Um I think you can also construct it as A larger ABC it doesn't really matter a So-called expanded flat where we have an Overshooting wave b or X that's both Possible both possible and we're now Coming down here in a um in a quite a Sharp Decline and if we take a look at This Then we can say that in this um Wave Y we've seen a wave a to the Downside that was the drop around the 9th of November when FTX came down then This year was just the three wave move To the upside a wave B and we're coming Down in C And that can take us down into the Region around 12 cents And there was bullish potential here but
Looking at this yeah looking at this From a distance this now looks like that We only had three waves up really Because we failed to recover from the Support box That would have been needed now we Failed complete invalidation of the Pattern will occur Below 17.9 cells now that will be Complete in validation Because then you're going below the low From the 14th of November Um and yeah why do I say around about 12 Cents well it has to do with the Situation that I calculate the length of The wave a Go to the high of the wave B and the First Target is around 12.2 cents that's The one to one ratio for the C and the a Wave yeah so that the wave C has the Same length as the Wave A and if I now Zoom in and want to label the sub waves And I have to go for that when I go to The 30 minute chart So take these boxes out now they're not Relevant they might confuse And We see we can we also dropped out Um of this price channel to the downside That's also not really a bullish signal So be very careful with that Um so then the view therefore is we Continue to move down in wave C which Would ideally land below the low of the
Wave a which was here at 14 point Six cents so anywhere below that would Be ideal Um it would be less likely to find Support above it because that would be a So-called running flat of course I can't Rule it out I also can't rule out that We are still in the bullish pattern but It's just getting too unlikely and Therefore I'm waiting until I get a Clearer pattern okay and that's my Update about Chili's hope you like the Update if you did please hit the like Button leave a comment and subscribe and If you really like the content then she Please check out the channel membership Thanks a lot for watching bye Thank you