We are looking first and foremost for a Slope change in the extremes when I say Slope change in the extremes I mean Things like this right here this well we Don't have them right there just yet but This one right here to the uh to the Downside this would be the upside upside Upside and these have been essentially Um close enough to all the macro Reversals in bitcoin's history that's One of the main reasons why I'm looking For a major bounce here again best and Best case scenario if we get that bounce Where would that put us Hey welcome back everybody to altcoin Daily my name is Austin on location Today in the Bahamas more info on that On our Twitter linked down below but on Location with ta expert era Crown to Take us through some Bitcoin and macro Charts Eric thanks for coming back on Man It's a pleasure to be here man it was uh It was beautiful to come on last time For the first time I was actually Reviewing our video and uh it seems very Appropriate to come back now and kind of Follow up on some of those ideas Definitely dude and how I this I Remember you were bearish on bitcoin Which is a good call at that time and You said don't buy eth until it returns To at least 1300 which seemed very Bearish at that time now I mean that
Definitely happened so What could you could you remind the Audience and what we talked about last Time yeah so um so I went through that Video and basically it was coming in Around the end of August and we were Saying hey we're in a bear Market rally Right now can topple topple over at any Moment in time and expect back down Somewhere between 19 to 20 000 bucks uh For September maybe October we've gotten That and the other big note that I made On that video was We are close probably in terms of price To a low but we're probably not in uh Not there time wise so I think now it's Like a really good time to update on These sort of ideas because we're Obviously closer in time now and as far As the actual price goes I do think that There is at least some opium now at Least a little bit at least a little bit Of opium with um with what we've seen Thus far and the current market is very Nuanced um as we're going to go through So I don't know if you want me to just Go straight into it right now let's Dive Right In okay right on okay so I'm just Gonna share my screen here uh this Should be the proper one there we go Um hopefully everything is all good over There Okay cool so there's a big focus on this Chart last time this was the
Accumulation and distribution indicator Chart Um specifically on the monthly that was Giving us an Insight that hey you know We're probably close to a low but it Ain't in there just yet and that was for A couple of reasons Um one on this indicator that we're Looking at right here we are looking First and foremost for a slope change in The extremes when I say slope change in The extremes I mean things like uh this Right here this well we don't have them Right there just yet but this one right Here to the uh to the downside this Would be the upside upside upside and These have been essentially close enough To all the macro reversals in bitcoin's History when we're talking like on the Big big big big big picture so Coming into December we've got a new Tick on this indicator and unfortunately We haven't got any change in the slope Here so I still have to say that while I Do think Bitcoin is probably in kind of A bouncy region and it could be one of Those big Bitcoin bounces too Um I'm still not seeing the direct Indications that I want to be seeing for A full-long low Um the sum somewhat maybe hopium type Stuff is that we have met about the same Aggregate region that we have seen or We've certainly met it
Um for all the macro those in the past As well so that's why I say price wise We're probably closer to the major load Than not time wise you know at least at Least one more month in like best case Scenario to really come at it like that Personally speaking I don't think that Um I don't think that we'll see it until Like Q maybe end of queue one of 2023. Um and then of course the other big Thing that I think is kind of you know Maybe a bit of hopium here is that when We were uh when we were on last time we Looked at a statistical analysis of when This indicator turns red so that would Be like uh in this example right here This circle right here to the and taking A measurement from that point to the Next macro low and so what I found is on Average Um over the past four iterations this is The full history of Bitcoin you know It's not too much but it's the best that We can do we've seen an average Correction phase of about 61 spot three Four percent Um as of right now and what I think is a Little bit more on the hopium side is That we've actually just about seen Exactly that right here 61 spot six Three percent so in this case very very Very very very close Um so we are at around the average of That region and that's why I start to
Say hey in terms of price we're probably Pretty damn close here Um I also have gone ahead and done a First standard deviation analysis of This um you know of these statistics as Well and that can kind of give us an Area of interest for if Bitcoin does Drop out the current bottom uh after What I suspect is probably going to be Another uh probably extended rally I Would assume uh maybe into the end of This month of December Um and that would be the upper end of The first standard deviation which is 66 Spot 80 right there so to put a number On that to give you an idea of where That would you know potentially land Bitcoin uh if there is going to be Another dump off that would give us an Area of Interest basically at around the Mid to low 13 000 territory Um so that's kind of my area where you Know on a closing basis if we start to See somewhere down around there Um I'm looking to probably DCA more Myself for the long term now this is Completely separate then on anything in The short term of course that's a whole Different story obviously but when I'm Talking about long term I'm talking About 10 20 30 years down the road Basically I'd be happy to buy it you Know those sort of regions uh last time We were on here I believe I said that I
Um was like 25 to maybe even 30 in Somewhere around uh 20 000 bucks I'm Still there as well you know again these Are very long term type things and I'll Go another 20 to 25 if it um if it drops Down there as well Anyway so question yes absolutely Um but you you did say you are expecting A bounce but if it doesn't bounce a Potential low of 13 000 and change Yeah so upon continuation so what do we Define as continuation here continuation In this case would be a closure on a Higher time frame like a daily below the Current lows which is what like 15 500 So if you see something like that very Likely another you know I guess that Would be like what uh 20-ish to 30 Percent uh drop off there something like That is probably what I'd be looking for Um yeah and you haven't and you haven't Bought since you bought the dip at 20K You're sticking to your conviction you Have not bought and will not buy until a Potential lower low Uh I did buy a little bit around 16 and A half thousand Um that was due to I don't believe we Spoke about this signal if we did it was Very brief last time but it's just one Of the major uh downsides that we were Looking at Um I think it was more recently on my Channel that we went over that but uh
Yeah probably not in that time uh but Yeah I did buy a little bit there small Amounts Um I would say no more than five percent Actually so I kind of look at it all as Like an average to begin with gotcha Anyways um the one of the reasons why do You believe that there is probably a Balance in coming here uh well there's Multiple reasons uh is one the weekly so The same indicator uh the accumulation Of distribution indicator right here on The weekly has actually been pretty damn Good at getting you know major bounces In the past for Bitcoin and you can see That we've already started to turn the Corner um as of the dump from late October early November in fact we're Even seeing divergences here now as well Compared to the lows that were put in You know in Late July and in August Around twenty thousand dollar level so a Couple things of interest here is that One the aggregate number is again quite Close to Prior major macro lows okay Right here yes the one question Crystal I'm absolutely clear accumulation versus Distribution this is essentially how Many Bitcoin holders are buying versus Selling and if it gets so low that just Means we have way more Sellers and the Sellers are exhausted It's not fully correct but for for a Layman's understanding absolutely yeah
Uh it's just a net Delta indicator Between buys and cells basically Um so in in in practice absolutely yes I Would say Okay Um so again we have Divergence here and Then we also have the slope change Already happening on the weekly and all Of the slope changes in the past have Led towards you know pretty decent size Balances in some cases major lows in Some cases macro lows but almost always A pretty damn major bounce Um you know for example uh even in the Heart of like a bear market we've seen You know bounces to 20 to 30 percent uh Based off of that so that's one of the Main reasons why I'm looking for a major Balance here it would be this the slope And also just the aggregate number and Then also Um you know obviously related to bitcoin But not directly related to bitcoin is The dollar index chart so of course Um it always goes without saying that When we're looking at the dollar Index Dixie it's not a direct correlation to Grip to risk on assets it tends to work That way on higher term time frame Trends but Um you know if you're in the lower term Time it's not going to really work all That well to be quite honest with you It's really a measurement of the Dollar's strength versus a basket of
Other Fiat currencies but what is very Interesting about this is that we're Starting to see a monthly reversal here Which could even bleed into a quarterly Reversal Um so that would be again a part of the Hopium case in this case uh the monthly Does have bearish Divergence that has Already formed between the highs in 2015 I guess already have it in there and the Highs that we're experiencing right Right now so these highs were Significantly higher I mean these were All the way back way on over here I'm Sorry way on over here Um uh sorry the the highs that we're Experiencing right now are significantly Greater than what we've experienced back In 2015 but the RSI the monthly is Making lower highs so that's bearish Divergence right there and you know we Probably do play at least down to about 102 in the next month or two so dollar Strength coming down probably has an Adverse relationship with the higher Time frames for Bitcoin and other risk On assets probably better for the stock Market to be honest with you but Ultimately just another sort of um you Know you know another sort of wind kind Of helping out the sails at least in the Short term as I very likely would look For this one to to try for a move Somewhere down around about 102 or so
Um that can even be extrapolated into The quarterly chart which obviously Doesn't close until end of this year but We could be even looking at Um you know we could even be looking at Hidden hidden bearish Divergence here as Well uh going all the way back to the Highs that we experienced in the 2000s So that would be way back on over here Hidden bearish Divergence is lower highs Um with higher highs on RSI and we Actually do have that right now so just Another sort of thing that does kind of Um play confluential to that case and Even has a little bit of a lower Target So ultimately over the next month maybe Two or three Um I'm probably looking for an extended Bear Market rally uh obviously I can be Very much wrong about that but you know There are some good indications there That at least we're probably done with The downside in the short term for now If downside is going to happen again if We're going to see you know if we are Going to see like a 13 000 Target hit if We're going to see even some of the Crazier ones from the Perma Mega Bears Right now uh that probably is going to Happen you know around end of q1 2023 I I don't think it's I don't think it's in The short term here Um and it's it's interesting because the Jerome Powell just like had his meeting
And it was it has a very dovish or in Translation bullish outlook on he's Gonna maybe slow down rate hikes Um and that's changed from all year so That would suggest as well that markets In general may have just a little more Of a bullish Outlook at least in the Short term Right on yes 100 and I'm no macro expert Myself I think it's it's probably one of The hardest things to do because I don't Even think that it really can be done or At least not in the way that I see Um a lot of guys try to do it but one Thing that you can say about Jay Powell Is that he's very consistent with what He says and so when he says that he's Going to do something whether it's right Or wrong whether opinions of it are Right or wrong he does it so him coming Out and stating that knowing full well That the second that he starts to talk About slowing down and pivoting and Whatnot he knows the Mark's going to Rally so Um I would very likely expect him to be Consistent with that coming into the December meeting again just another sort Of catalyst and you know you probably See things generally Glide up and to the Right into that time at least sideways At least sideways so that's kind of my Main message it's like you know the the Extreme downside is done for right now
We're very likely looking at Um reversion balances is probably the Name of the game for the next month Maybe two months and does that turn into A Mac for a low I mean it's always Possible right I could very easily see 18 000 maybe even 19 000 hit um that's Certainly no issue at all uh things Start to really change around however if Bitcoin can start to trade back above Let's say well especially the summer Highs I mean that one's a no-brainer of Course but hey I'd even go as far to say That a Bitcoin can pop back above about Eighteen and a half thousand on a weekly Closing basis we're going to be looking At you know a a relatively big balance Like like a Bitcoin bounce you know like One of the ones that uh I know I know You know this because you've been around For a while but you know one of the ones That we saw in like 2018 2019 these sort Of things is probably what I be mentally Preparing for if that's gonna you know If that's gonna come to fruition Um anyways uh yes and best and best case Scenario if we get that bounce where Would that put us Oh my best case scenarios all-time highs Of course but uh that's that's way too Much opium um for even the most uh the Most positive person I think um you know I think best best best best best case Scenario like best best best best best
Um I would say low 30s uh I do not think That that's happening um just personally Personally saying but that would be best Case scenario if you see the Summers Highs get taken out yeah you're very Likely to see low 30s maybe even mid 30s Um you know the Mark's still an overall Range of course but uh yeah it would be A very credible range and a very Generous range I'd say as well Um so yeah I mean those are the big ones That I'm looking at as of right now uh The other thing that I wanted to mention Was you know as to why I'm kind of Looking at a bounce was one of the main Charts that I've been following um on my Channel it was yeah actually we did Cover this chart last time I spoke uh Last time we spoke um it was one of the Main charts I was giving us a downside Bias last time as well they gave us Another signal to the downside Um coming off of the highs that we saw In an early portion of this month you Know or last month November right Um that signal has now been essentially Done or it's it's kaput it's done it's It's uh what's the word I'm looking for It's done that's what I'm trying to say Anyways Um so typically after one of these major Signals is hit in this case this was you Know a 32 move almost you're very lucky To see a bounce so I think that that's
Kind of where we're at in the market Right now Um and of course you know the the Perma Bears they might eventually be very much Right but in terms of timing this uh There can be a lot of zigs and zags Before we see like the actual you know The actual uh capitulation dump if That's what you're looking for Personally speaking I do think that and I'll say some maybe a little more direct Here I do think that if Bitcoin can hold Sideways not breaking below the current Lows at let's say 15 and a half thousand Bucks for the next three months I'd be Saying hey look very likely a macro low If it can weather the storm for that Amount of time yeah very very likely Um if you can't well you'll you Obviously already know that and then the Question turns back on to you know Downside targets but one of the things And tell me if you agree with this by The way and maybe even ask Community as Well but one of the things that's really Stuck out to me especially in the past You know I'd say month Um since especially since the FTF Situation happened is that people are no Longer having like a bull or bear Discussion we're not really liking the Conversation of like are you bullish you Know are we going to like 50 000 or are You bearish or you know are we going to
Ten thousand it seems to me like almost Everyone of course not everyone but Almost everyone Um you know are are looking for further Downside and the question is not bull or Bear but how far down are we going to go And it really feels a lot similar in Sentiment Um to you know late 2018 early 2019 to Me I'm curious if you kind of agree with That if you've seen the same thing you Know what's what's the sort of echo Chambers like in your in your parts well I remember back in 2018 19 even in 2020 Where we had that 3.1 K tip or whatever That was the pandemic crash that's it at All those lows there was huge talk that You were an idiot for buying at that Time or going much lower and by the way We easily could have and we easily could Go much lower now but I mean generally When sentiment is this bad it's a sign That we're closer to the low than the High Yeah I would encourage the audience you know Comment down below uh we will be reading This is being posted immediately Air Crown final thoughts for the altcoin Daily audience in summation of Everything we talked about today Yes so if you're long-term which I Suspect many people Um on this channel are and I try to
Tailor my uh my content to that Um if you're long-term you know you have To be asking yourself Um is it worthwhile if I'm thinking 10 20 30 years down the road is it Worthwhile to be going in maybe a little Bit here and waiting for uh potentially Lower is it worthwhile to maybe go it's Never worthwhile to go all the way and Of course uh but you know that's a Question to answer yourself but Ultimately you know if you're looking For another 20 20 30 drop off um which I Do think would be reasonable uh would Would it be wise to at least DCA some a Little bit here thinking that hey I can Buy more fit if it trades lower I can Also buy more if it if it proves itself With an actual reversal and we get a Weekly uptrend these are sort of Questions that I would um you know I Like to think about a lot myself for the Long term and questions that I found a Lot of um I found it very uh perspective Given when I was first getting into more Long-term style of thinking so so you Never have to go all the way in of Course and at the end of the day you Know having a little bit uh having a Little bit at risk sometimes does help With the emotions which I know a lot of People are are feeling right now myself Included so Um at the end of the day maybe something
To consider By the way did you watch any of the Sam Bankman freed interview From yesterday is he lying is he telling The truth what was your thoughts man I'm Just I'm the worst judge of character uh It's it's it's so awful because he's so Convincing man he's so he's so damn Convincing Um so for me I'm like oh he he just made A mistake you know it's all good but Then I I go through like the actual Critiques and I look at what he actually Did it's like he's he's a damn criminal It's the worst guy to ever exist Um at the end of the day man I I don't Want to try to read into the motives of Other people that I just I don't even Know like I've never I've actually Spoken to him before Um but uh you know I'm inclined to say That look his actions speak louder than His words he did what he did man Um now of course you know we should Probably wait until we get the full Story on both sides but uh it doesn't Look too good on the outside outside Links crown for all your stuff are down Below I encourage my audience to follow Subscribe I'm in the Bahamas right now So if anybody has some good crypto Friendly restaurants in the Bahamas feel Free to let me know on Twitter or in the Comment section and like always see