Foreign Welcome to another update video about Ethereum so with ethereum we are Currently experiencing here quite a Strong pullback nothing that would Threaten let's say the the bullish case That we have here Um but just to to make it very clear Yeah this is not Um this is not a convincing bullish Structure I have to say that again and Again this is way too little information To really call a bottom here on um from The 9th of November yeah this could very Well still come down easily because we Haven't really done enough to give us Very very strong evidence that the law Is in I am counting this bullish and I'm Showing you the bullish scenario but the Probabilities are really really similar On a similar level and that is mainly Due to this very very strong pullback That we had primarily as you know my Overall view is still that we are here In a larger breakout pattern however This is still Uh been challenged obviously with the Latest pullback from the high at 1670 Um here early in November I mean we did Expect the pullback yeah I also made you Aware when I took profits around 1620 But it still came down way harder and Way stronger than expected obviously due To the FTX issue I think if that's or
Had that not occurred I think we would Be in a completely different position Now but the overall view here with Ethereum is still that this year was a Wave one to the upside this year Wave 2 But to make that still likely we need to Hold the one thousand dollar level There's no way around it and um below That one thousand dollar level it is Sort of the 650 660 level that will be Relevant and should we even go below That well then we can say hello to Around 300 to 400 dollars I don't see it at the moment um that we Get down to 300 to 400 but never say Never in this crazy Market at the moment Well the expectation would be still the Next wave up would take us to away three Then there will be a way four and away Five however we need to obviously have Our risk management in place and even if We expect something of course it doesn't Need to mean it happens so as a Trader Or investor we want to be prepared for All scenarios yeah and um Sort of there's risk management plays an Important role here so of course there Is this scenario and the possibility That the low was made here in this wave Too so that we are ready to start off in A way three that the Wave 2 low was in Here at around 1075 on the 9th of November this is possible however the Move of the low was well you can argue
It was in five waves then we have the Problem still and I mentioned that Before with the truncated wave Arrangement It is not a very reliable pattern or Alternatively we count it as a leading Diagonal in three waves I did explain That as well So these are the bullish options but Unfortunately both bullish options are Not super reliable it's okay you know You can get away with it but it's not Super reliable therefore we want to wait For evidence the evidence would occur if We break above 1284 that would be Initial evidence That indeed we can move higher here and That we would be in a breakout in Wave 3 But as I said to you before we need to Get that breakout above 1284 1285. you Can see that we tried that today But we failed yeah So we did not substantially move above That level yeah we touched it but that's It got rejected so at the moment things Are getting difficult for the chart now This icon I can currently count this as A one two pattern the problem is I can Also easily count this here as just the Corrective wave up Um because it is basically only a three Wave structure as I said you can get Away with counting it as five waves but The wave 5 would be shorter
So quite truncated wave I'm not very Happy with that so again the alternative Would be a three wave move up which Could be a leading diagonal but again These leading diagonals are unreliable And to get evidence that indeed we are In a bullish breakout pattern I would Like to see five waves complete and Would then buy the pullback because this Would be a five wave move up in a wave One and I would buy The Wave 2 pullback Pullback trailer yeah Um unfortunately also here at the moment We see quite a strong move to the Downside so let's take a look at that so In the bullish scenario we could argue We are in the third wave would be Confirmed by the move that happened here To the upside today we have a five wave Move up today Um which is interesting yeah that at Least would confirm sort of a kind of a Bullish scenario here one two three four Five that's possible let me just change The wave degree here but as possible as A five wave move which would mean that This year again was a wave one to the Upside now I'm not gonna Not gonna label or the Subways here but Yeah basically this is wave one then Coming down now in wave two and three Four five and we would then move higher Within this third wave there in red yeah But to make that still a possibility
We need to hold a certain level so very Important is to hold the 1170 level but Even the very first indication that we Are actually breaking down here would be If we break below 1195 the 78.6 retrace We already currently just coming down Here to the 61.8 FIB level at 12 15. That's not substantially broken yet but If we break it then 11.95 will be the Next support and if we lose 11.95 then I Think we're going to come down here in An Impulse further down Um yeah so this is already with that Engulfing red candle here not looking Too good but on the other hand as long As we're holding above that 78.6 FIB Level it's still acceptable but we don't Really get the clear sickness of the Chart here at the moment so this could Just be an ABC at the moment here yeah ABC in wave two but again ideally we are Holding the 1195 level it will get Invalidated below 1170 but already below 11.95 things are going to get unlikely Yeah but um yeah if this works out and We've now hit this support area for the Third time now or fourth time yeah Whenever we hit it we basically bounced Off it you can see how relevant it is Um a confirmation that we are in the Third wave would be first indication That we actually in the third wave would Be if we um move up and break above that Wave B high at 12 44 and then the
Breakout above 1285 would be a Confirmation But yeah this could also still come down Further but therefore you know it's all About this support range needs to hold Overall yeah Um and I gave you also the short-term Support level that needs to hold But yeah this is sort of my view at the Moment and um things are not too clear Here Best to wait here for some confirmation But as I said this is actually an area Where we would expect the price to Reverse if it's in a bullish scenario it Should reverse in here and if it breaks Below that level which is all the way Down to 11 30 yeah if it breaks below 11 30 there's a really good chance we're Gonna say hello to the one thousand Dollar level if that breaks then yeah it Could take us down to 880 and then 650. Okay and that's my update about ethereum I hope you like the update if you did Please hit the like button leave a Comment and subscribe and if you really Like the content please check out the Channel membership thanks a lot for Watching bye