Foreign So let's take a look at the um generally The Wider wave count and then we take a Look at the shorter time frame count Overall yeah since my last video not Much has changed in the overall wave Pattern here this is still ethereum Um since June yeah the current view is Still that It is at least not my primary Expectation that we're going to see the June low again of course I could be Wrong yeah but as I said in previous Videos also yesterday we had here a very Attractive long trade opportunity this Long trade opportunity has already Worked out the question is now you know How sustainable is it anybody who bought Yesterday I mentioned to you I bought Yesterday around 1160 or something Um started to dollar cost average Ian And also into a trading position Um you know you can obviously move up Your stop loss or anything I think that Is sort of useful in at least pulling The stop loss back into profit um which Is I think useful in an uncertain Environment as we are but the overall View is still that this here was a wave One in my opinion a leading diagonal and We have come down in a wave two this is The view as long as we're holding the One thousand dollar level and we now Have a chance to move up in a wave three
There will be a wave four and the wave 5 To the upside but this is so this is the Bullish setup the bullish interpretation Um but for that ideally yesterday's low Is going to hold and more importantly The one thousand dollar level is holding If we don't then 650 dollars down here Is likely okay and maybe even lower But let's take a look at the Possible Trading uh scenario that we have here so The view is that we have bottomed out Here in a wave 2 yesterday originally we Anticipated Wave 2 was done here yeah we Then moved up impulsively but came down Once more due to the FTX issue and um Yeah I think this distorted some of the Waves that we had going on but the wider Pattern is still at play so if the Wave 2 and the T or here doesn't really Matter in the grand scheme of things Nevertheless it was a shocking sell off Here and surprised me a bit the strength In which this happened but it did hold The critical one thousand dollar support So to continue with the uptrend of Course we need to hold the 1000 level But ideally also as I said yesterday's Low already below yesterday's low I Think um a break below one thousand Dollars will get likely so it's really Imminently or very important that we are Holding this so there are now two Possibilities how we can count this move To the upside am I already updated the
Channel members on Telegram and Discord Earlier that we have a potential five Wave move to the upside happening here And this next wave is really critical This is basically one make or break Point here now Um because we have a possible five wave Move up so we can consider this as a one Two three four and the next wave up Would be away five Um if we now look at this in terms of The Fibonacci uh sorry one second Or maybe more generally for anybody Who's new to Elliott wave important is In Elliott wave that you get five waves Up five waves up would indicate they Would be the first indication that a Trend has shifted from a downtrend into An uptrend so that is what we need to See we need to see five waves up is this Already evidence well it's initial it's An initial indication that the trend is Changing but the five waves up is what You definitely need to see if you wanna You know if you're looking for some kind Of a bullish evidence Five waves up need to be generated as Shown here we currently only have Um one two three maybe four and the Fifth wave would still be to come Um What we then need to see afterwards is Just an ABC correction a higher low in Which the um
In which the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement Is holding so I can't really give you That absolute level yet because we Haven't peaked yet in five waves what You can see here at the moment is only Three waves if we have a three wave Pattern and we break down from here then It is very likely that we're going to Lose yesterday's low if we get five Waves it will increase the probability That we're holding the low and then it Would in a move afterwards be very Likely to push up even higher in a Bullish pattern One two three four five here let me just Change the colors here of them I think It's better to see them in white But yeah this would sort of be the um This would be the view And then we would have those first five Waves would be a wave one those ABC Would be a wave two this would be a wave Three right and it's always cascading Probability with Elliott wave so you Want to see the five ways up first Indication that we have bottomed three Waves down second indication that we Have bottomed Next five waves up next indication that We've bottom and actually the break Above the first High here of the first Wave up this way five high yeah so the First wave has five waves as soon as we Break that in this wave that's a really
Good confirmation that we've bottomed But the question is do you want to wait Until we have a breakouts I am always I Always try to buy in uh the support area CM I'm I'm buying support areas so This is one possibility in this wave I Would like to see in the fifth wave now The Um 1400 level would be great right so That's one possibility Um the the other possibility is that we Have here a one two one two setup so That we have let's say wave three still Coming Way Forward still coming with Five is still coming and this is just The one two setup there will be a three Or three a four of three a five or three I don't want to make it too confusing Here but the point is what we definitely Need to see is one more leg to the Upside if this was already away four Down then I can also give you a target For the fifth wave And then we take the length of the wave One we add it to the low of the fourth Wave and the target would be 1391 that's The first Target the one to one ratio The second target is the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension at 1480 so these are the two Targets that we have at the moment it's Not looking too bad Um but yeah if we don't see the fifth Wave we're probably going to make a new Low that's as simple as it is really
Basically I'm focusing on this sort of Bullish count until it gets invalidated Um call it hoping call it opium call it What you want but this is just because It is the last chance ethereum basically Has right it needs to turn around from Here or it will really get deeply into Trouble now even if we go lower nothing Is 100 guaranteed right but the point That I try to make if we drop below that 1000 yeah 76 level it's gonna get very Unlikely that it's still going to Recover because this is a chance it has Now I mean with a catalyst of lower CPI Numbers this is is the chance it has Really is oversold or it was oversold We've had really good numbers so this is Now the chance it has really to Rally it Would be my Yeah I mean I don't really like the the Term primary expectation but this is now A really high probability chance it has Because if it doesn't use it it's going To break down yeah that's as simple as It is Um Also here we have now if I go to the Four hour chart we've had a bullish Crossover now on the macd so the Momentum is certainly up where the Bullish crossover on the RSI Looking at the daily chart We have bounced off the 30 level of the RSI so we have bounced off the oversold
Range the macd is not yet turning around I think if it is starting to turn around So that means if we close the day-to-day And maybe tomorrow I'm bullish then this Could turn around and we could get a Bullish momentum in in place here as we Had its um sort of middle of September Before we started the rally right so it Would be really really good but this is What now needs to happen With the theorem it really needs to Start moving now continue to move and Then ideally um yeah will not come down Lower again and will hold those levels Where we are at the moment and um yeah What it needs to do Don't know what happened to the child I Don't know what happened to the church Now then I maybe lost internet but it Needs to hold yesterday's low that's Absolutely crucial okay and that's my Update about ethereum I hope you liked The update if you did please hit the Like button leave a comment and Subscribe and if you really like the Content then please check out the Channel membership thanks a lot for Watching bye