Foreign Welcome to another update video about Ethereum so in the previous video we Didn't have bullish evidence yet that This correction is finished it's still Not entirely clear but as I said to you Before a breakout above the channel Would be basically the first indication That things are changing a little bit Here I am so we've got a few things that Could Um make us consider that maybe the low Was made here now yeah we've come into The support area yeah as discussed and Whenever we do that we have to be ready That things could be turning around At the moment for me it's still a bit You know I'm still on the side of Caution here we could still very easily Drop one small down Um but to be fair we are now moving Higher and we've broken out of the Channel so it's the first indication That a low might be in Um We Look at the retracements first to Establish where we are really so just to Take you through the wave count here Again and I'm gonna move the the orange One out of the way for a second that's The bearish count so nothing is Invalidated yeah so the downside Movement is also not invalidated yet um
But what we do have is the first sign That things are turning around to be Fair if we really turn around here I Would be extremely happy because then The support area did hold and the Preferred count which is the White Wave Count a 1-2 setup with a follow through In wave three it would then work out But I'm not convinced yet yeah let's Let's say it like that It's all about cascading probabilities There's certain levels of confirmation As these get broken we can become more Confident the overall idea is that we've Moved up here in wave one uh on the 30th Of November that's where we peaked in Wave one and that we now came down in Wave two possibly not finished yet I Mean we broke out above the channel yes But I'd like to see a retest as well With volume I think the current increase Is a little bit driven by the stock Market NASDAQ we see a little bit of Upside here today after the opening so We're breaking through but um and it Wouldn't be the first time that we get a Fake out of such a channel here but Let's let's talk about that so Wave 3 Would be next that would be ideal but I Told you in the previous video I'd still Be in the favor or in favor of one more Leg down until I see a clear impulsive Move to the upside now this might become Something impulsive but I'd like to see
Clear five waves at the moment ABC is Only three waves okay so it's not really The five wave move I wanna see But The correction is what interests us now So we've got obviously the the main Count as I told you is wave one up wave Two down and Wave 3 would be following To the upside in this count Um we've got the correction as a w x y Pattern and in the Y wave we can say We've done a wave a we've done a wave B And we're now in the C wave the C wave Could be complete because we reached the Support area Um but ideally I would like to see one More leg down Which would now probably have to be some Kind of a diagonal pattern also Um And in the in the sea so first of all Let's just remind ourselves what was the Ideal Target for the C wave We measure the length of the wave a we Go to the high of the B wave so the Ideal Target was 12 18. as explain Explained in the previous video we Reached 1220 pretty much so Target Pretty much reached so that was the Ideal Target reached also from that Point of view Um What is important now is to understand The sub wave structure so if we say that
In this C wave here Um That we've had something like a wave one Wave two yeah here on the micro there's A small one too here wave three this Would be a four and a five down then we Have actually retraced a little bit too Much for Um 4084 yeah if we say one two three four Five so We can actually measure that and we can See we've now nearly moved up to the 78.6 retrace that's too much for wave Four Um so that puts the bullish Outlook more Into you know our favor so more focus on The bullish Outlook but still what I Want to see is a retest of the channel Otherwise you get these fake outs Occasionally and to be fair Um we could also I mean on the in the in The micro here on the micro count this Could still look a little bit different I mean this could just be a wave one and The Wave 2 for example and we'd drop Lower right so when does that get less Likely that gets less likely above 1263 so above 12 63 The bullish Outlook would be would get More Um more strength okay and if we push Higher from here Then you will see that we are getting
Into this resistance area that's at 1270 That will be next resistance and then a Break above the and and the break above The B wave high here as explained in the Previous video as well 1275 would give Us even more confidence that we are in The bullish count and the last basic Confirmation that we can get is the Break above the 1308 level Um that is the wave one high so it's all About cascading probability it's Basically do we come down in three waves Yes Did we reach the port area yes next tick Yeah do we break above the channel yes Next tick do we break above the 1275 Level yes next tick yeah and that's and It's about you for you to decide you Know how much confirmation do you Actually need to be comfortable to uh Enter a trade because let's be honest There's never 100 certainty in these Markets I am generally a pullback Trader So I like to to go along in these Support areas um but I'm going to I'm Usually scaling in so the lower we go The more the position size so that I Have most of my risk as close as Possible to the invalidation point and One more thing here to understand is That the 1185 level is really the break Point here Um because below 1185 the one two setup Here the bullish count cannot be
Defended anymore longer we would then be Most likely in the orange count Which suggests that we have here a One-way a wave one down we'll show you Wave one down from the top a wave two to The upside that we are now in a wave Three there will be a wave four and away Five and that can take us lower I would Only go with this count if we drop below 11.85 Which means below 1185 the orange count The bearish count gets much more support And gets much more into focus and it Would most likely lead to us maybe Testing the one thousand dollar level Yeah Um and in this in this count yeah if we If we just look at the orange count now We would say that we are we've done a Wave 1 and the Wave 2 and we're now in The third wave and within this third Wave You could argue that this was just A wave one as well and here wave two and We've done nothing really to invalidate It right we haven't pushed too much that Again is what I just told you that it's The 78.6 retrace which is of relevance Here Um which is at 1263 so above 1263 this One two setup will get less likely and Again it would put more emphasis on the Bullish count So it's interesting we broke out now we Just need to see do we hold this um this
Channel if we lose the channel support Which is basically now at 12 45 that Would be not a sign of strength that Would put more emphasis again on further Continuation to the downside Um because to maintain the breakout here Which is certainly possible now what I Want to see is five waves again I only See three at the moment ABC and we need To hold the channel support of course so It's an interesting interesting Um moment here at the moment yeah where We now need to see the marketing side do We hold support here and can we move Higher it would confirm the main count But also bear in mind that the higher Level scenario here of finding support In the green area would not be Invalidated even if we drop all the way Down to 1185 that is just the the space We need to give these movements that's The space that's due to the uncertainty In the markets we need yeah Um so one more low I will not rule that Out we haven't seen enough to invalidate The bearish count we haven't Seen enough upside to also Um say that the bottom is definitely in Because I've only seen three waves so Far and of course I'll update you as Soon as possible if I see five waves That would be really good because what You want to see For a breakout is a one a two a three a
Four a five at the moment again it's Only three waves so we need those five And then the next possible entry point Should this really be a breakout and Should you have missed the entry here Then the next entry will be the ABC Pattern after that and I'll keep you Updated but of course nothing of this is Financial advice Yeah that's my update about ethereum I Hope you like the update if you did Please hit the like button leave a Comment and subscribe and if you really Like the content then please check out The channel membership thanks a lot for Watching bye