Foreign [Music] The overview here will be very similar To bitcoin we have come down lower Yesterday as anticipated Um to be honest last Week it was I was quite disappointed When we only touched the support area Here it didn't get very far into it now We've got that now sorted Um and I suggested yesterday this was Only a three wave move up so we were in Favor of another dip down deeper into The support area it would certainly have Been more sure I mean the scenario is Indeed still that there is short-term Bullish potential that the market can Use we see here a little bit of a Sell-off at the moment not entirely Unexpected after obviously we talked Yesterday about the move to the upside Only being in three waves so not really Convincingly bullish which means that The move up here in this third wave have Has most likely not started yet so the Idea was that this was a wave one in Five waves yeah one two three four five We peaked here at around 12 1 290 we Came down In a so-called W wave we moved up in a So-called x-wave and then had here an ABC Um different counts are possible Um showed you that in the previous video
That is not so important what happened Here it's most important is now do we Hold this support area which is based on Fibonacci retracement levels of this Wave one here and it goes all the way Down to 12 30 let me just double check That Might need to change this so very Slightly it goes all the way down to 1236 Um the 78.6 fit level yeah and this is The level that really needs to hold Because going below that level will make It less likely that this is still a wave 2 and the probabilities that the market Can still rally in a third wave into the 1400 region will be reduced okay Um So ideally we are turning around now yes We could drop once more to 1236 but if We drop any lower probabilities for a Continuation of the uptrend in Wave 3 Yeah in yellow this particular wave Count these probabilities will Significantly reduce So you know at the moment we're Following the primary expectation but it Should really turn around now or very Shortly yeah I wouldn't have a problem With one more tip yeah absolutely not But then it should should be it Um we've got like on the Bitcoin chart The situation that we can draw this Channel
Um that is a channel that wears a Channel where's the channel where's the Channel We need to connect waves 5 here and wave B So that's one way of doing it and I've Got a parallel channel here and if you Connect these and if you create a Parallel Channel That is quite um an important one in Elite wave The way to do this create a parallel Channel and you can see that this c-wave Of Y Ended in a so-called throw under Um that is A chapter I think it was in The principle of or the elite with Principle or the wave principle And he's talking about Um Those throw unders or throw overs and That those impulsive waves it could be In this case a wave four obviously wave Four no wave C has five waves and the Fifth wave ends Sometimes in a so-called thorough under Or if we talk about the end of an Uptrend you talk about throw over where The channel gets broken but then it goes Back into the channel and that is a sign At least the first sign and not evidence Or anything about the first sign that This move down could be over so let's
See let's see we've already made the First higher low and first higher higher We're gonna get Um so it will be interesting so at the Moment I'm in favor of that this move Down is finished but bear in mind there Is no evidence I want to see five waves To the upside at the moment I only have One two and three Um so there's not really strong evidence Yet we could without a problem still Come down but it's a first sign and real Evidence we will get As soon as we break above 1284 this is The support area in which we currently Are ideally we turn around here now Otherwise it will probably fail what Would be the fallback scenario well the Fallback scenario would be that this Wave 2 here Which presumably ended on the 7th of December never ended that it will end Somewhere here yeah that this move is Quite a strong and complex Decline and Correction here after we moved up in This wave one which was a five wave move And we came down presumably in a wxy Pattern in Wave 2 and then started Obviously Wave 3 with this one two setup But that this Wave 2 here in the green Box never really finished Um similar situation to bitcoin if we if We drop below the yellow support area We're going to fall back into this and
Now we have to reset higher degree Wave 2 and then we'd have to say maybe even Though these These are really rare these Scenarios I might have to say this was w X y X Z you know which is a very complex Correction they are very rare Um I would be not really be inclined to Use it Um But I would have to probably yeah this Is the fallback scenario need to see how It will develop structurally but this Would be the fallback scenario the Problem with these wxy XZ patterns is I Don't like to use them because they are Nothing else than a five wave move to The downside in this case and it could Very well be a leading diagonal to the Downside so it is a very very unreliable Pattern and they are very rare just Because they are so unreliable so I will Try to find another way to do it and However this is very clearly just the Fallback scenario so if we drop below The 11 30 12 36 level we could fall back Into the green box yeah this is at 12 29 To 1186 and if we really drop below 1186 1185 that is when I think this entire Possible bullish structure is going to Break down I mean at the moment we still Have a chance that the um scenario works With short-term upset potential but um
First of all we need to talk about 1236 If we don't do that we have one more Chance to hold 11.85 if that doesn't Hold I think this whole one two setup is Probably not going to hold And yeah that's my view about ethereum Again bear in mind tomorrow CPI data Release that's probably the most Important event of this week so we may Not see too much movement today we'll See we'll see Um certainly tomorrow there will be a Lot of volatility and then we've got the Um fed interest rate decision just one Day after I would argue that the CPI is Much more important this week than the Interest rate decision Because I think they're not going to Change the interest rates Um the the forecast yeah I would be Quite uh surprised if they do anything Different than 50 basis points but you Never know but I think CPI is the more Important one because that's what they Will probably base their decision to a Degree on as well okay and that's my Update about ethereum I hope you like The update if you did please hit the Like button leave a comment and Subscribe and if you really like the Content then please check out the Channel membership thanks a lot for Watching bye [Music]
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