Foreign Ty not so many changes to my last video Um we're still sort of in a state of Uncertainty and actually in something That you could call a bear flag where we Came down from around 226 dollars all The way in a long move down and we now Consolidating here in an upward sloping Channel which many people would consider Already an uptrend Um but actually you would normally Consider this only some kind of a So-called bearish flag which would then Most likely actually Um break to the downside yeah that is What normally happens with those flag Patterns of course is it guaranteed to Break down no but it's all about Probabilities in these markets yeah and Such a flag pattern is actually always a Warning that things might go down it's Trend continuation it a consolidation After quite a long downtrend yeah so That's what you can see here the Flagpole and the consolidation and we're Getting into um I mean this could go on For a while let's be honest yeah this Could move on for a little while Um because we haven't reached any kind Of Apex or anything but let's let's First look at the overall wave pattern Here my view is still that we moved up In a five wave structure of the June low To the October high and we've come down
In three waves a b c and it's actually The question is now exactly you know is This c-wave done or not that's where the Uncertainty comes into play at some Point up here I did expect a reversal Down we were massively overbought we did The spike I think it only took a day or So We despite massively uh well much higher Than my original Target I think it ended At around 190 or 200 we then spiked but It didn't take very long to 230 dollars And then came down in the expected move Down but Um is it finished now that's the Question yeah and this is where I can't Give you a clearance so we need to wait For the signals of the market but I'm Going to tell you what the signals are Most likely I also tell you what I Personally expect and if we now zoom in And we're already on the four hour chart So that should be fine then we see um That as I explained we are in this Wave 2 correction now that could be finished It could not be finished yeah the thing Is whenever you reach a Target area like This you have to be ready that the Market is turning around and it did turn Around but it hasn't turned around in a Very substantial or bullish way so the Steins are not very clear if we or had We some kind of an impulsive wave Structure here five ways up I will tell
You yeah we have most likely reversed But this is either a series of one twos Which I don't really believe Or it is Um a diagonal pattern which is Unreliable it would be bullish as well But unreliable or it's a correction Which would break down which to be fair Is still something to be taken very Seriously especially as we as long as we Are below the red resistance area here Which is located between 132 and 135 Dollars that is a critical resistance Area because it could be And we still have to have that on the Radar that this was the way for Peak and We are now coming down in five waves and Maybe we've seen here the wave one the Wave two the wave three the wave four And we will break down in wave five or Something more complex here Um Why could this still be a wave four well Very easily because we came down one two Three yeah then we can consider this as Some kind of an over or well a wave B Which goes below the way three which is Absolutely possible Um and this just as a corrective wave Structure here yeah so this is possible And especially because we reached the 38.2 percent FIB retracement of the Third wave here a few days ago and this Is just the ideal Target for wave four I
Explained that in the previous videos There is nothing really super bullish Going on here of course the higher we go Here the higher the likelihood we're Going to break it Um and the lower we go the more the Likelihood we actually in the way five But um the problem is as long as we are In this channel in this so-called you Could even call it an ascending wedge Yeah as long as that's the case we don't Really know I actually have to lean Towards another low and the reason for That is that Um the trend hasn't really changed yeah Not officially and we haven't really Done anything that's too bullish for a Way for and we also are in a so-called Ascending wedge so that's actually quite A bearish wave pattern So how could I be bullish here I mean we We have to just understand that the Price could have turned around that's Why I've got these support areas But as you can see the price could still Come down Breakdown go to the 81 level and still Be within my primary primarily expected Wave count here over wave 2. The Wave 2 Can stretch out all the way down to 81 No problem that's still all part of my Scenario the question is just was the Low in here or will we make one more low That's the question that I can't give
You an answer for but Very clearly if we break above the 50 FIP retracement of 50 retracement 140 That would be a strong indication that The way 4 was already done here the wave 5 was already done here at 95 dollars We're already in the breakout because The Wave 4 would normally not move Higher than the 50 retracement so that's Actually the first real really strong Signal that the trend has shifted back To the upside Um and also you know a first indication Would be to break above that 132 to 135 Level this resistance area and at the Same time we would most likely break out Of the um wedge pattern to the upside But for me it's still I'm still Skeptical Um and as long as we are in this pattern And below the 140 dollar level I have to Assume actually another foreign we have To at least be prepared for another low Yeah which doesn't mean that um it has To happen but but there is currently no Reliable confirmation that the law has Been made yet okay and that's my update About command I hope you liked the Update if you did please hit the like Button leave a comment and subscribe and If you really like the content then Please check out each Channel membership Thanks a lot for watching bye