Foreign The general analysis has worked out Nicely I think from my last video where We looked at further lower prices and The further Decline and I told you I Remember that that only really if we get Above this channel yeah then there is a Reversal signal until then I would focus On the downside which then also played Out of course what also played into this Was the FTX disaster which accelerated The downturn but I think throughout this Whole correction it was the right call To say that we are going down lower and Head down lower especially after we Broke back through the 157 level when That happened it all went really really Fast and I couldn't even keep up with Updating videos but you should have Always been informed by you know this General Target area and that there is a Good chance to reverse in this area Which is sitting between hundred and Sixteen dollars and 157 Unfortunately the lower level wave count Wasn't that clear especially not with The messy price action that occurred Here over the last few days but what I Would like to do is just to show you the Two scenarios because there are two Scenarios none of them is really bearish There is a bearish scenario as well Which is the really bearish and it would Indicate that we can go below 40 dollars
Again Um but I will not unpack this until we Go below 80 dollars because 80 is really A critical support level that we're Going to talk about my primary Expectation though is still this one That we moved up in a wave one we came Down in a two which then bottomed around 80 or 85 and we are now moving up in the Third wave the third wave consists of Five sub waves and we had the wave one Which topped at 220 dollars roughly and We are now coming down in wave two we Would be move up we would be moving up Um in a wave three afterwards away four Down and the wave five up Um to finish off the way three in green This is one scenario and then we would Have to hold generally this green area In which we currently are which is um Which has its lowest support at around 116 dollars if we substantially drop Below that level then we are going to Morph into the other scenario that I Talked about in previous videos already It hasn't been my primary scenario it Still isn't but we need to be ready for It because the current price action is Not really what I like to see so um Even even though the primary expectation Worked out but it's still not the way The price is developing at the moment And behaving is not really what I like To see and I would rather suggest we are
Going to morph into this alternative Scenario which I'm going to talk about Now and this scenario would indicate That this whole move was a wave one and To do that to get that done I would have To change the sub waves in here that's Possible and then we would also be Coming down now in a wave two And moving up in a Wave 3 next the Difference the key difference though is That I have to draw when I draw the Target area and calculate the targets I Have to draw the flip levels differently And then we have a chance to drop all The way down to 80 in this scenario to The 78.6 FIB level Um And it's it's basically what can I say Unfortunately both scenarios in both Scenarios the targets morph into each Other so there's not really a clean cut So the thing is if we drop below the 115 Level and stay there then I think we are In the let's say alternative scenario Problem in this scenario is that also Here we can easily found support at the 61.8 trip level at 112 dollars to be Fair we we pretty much did that so Um but it's not clear enough we could Still be in the first scenario do you Want to know what I mean because the Target areas they morph into each other So if I Define now a Target area for This scenario it would basically be this
One right so they are morphing into each Other they are you don't get the clicker It just becomes a huge Target area which Is not great you know it's not it's not Really helpful is it but I think it's Important to know the key support areas Which are 112 dollars here at um the 61.8 FIB level and then 81 only if we go 80 below 81 then I think we can drop Below the 40 level which was the June Low what I don't like at the moment About this is the lower level price Action Um Because we are below key resistance and What we're doing here looks really Corrective it does and it looks like We're getting into an apex now and it Could really Um crash down again so this looks to me Like an ascending wedge which what we're Doing here and we're just heading just Now into the Apex and this always Indicates there will be an impulsive Move I can't tell you in which direction It will be but the shape of that wedge Suggests we are going to come down okay So Um what I would really like you to Understand is that obviously we've come Down here and what I believe is a wave c Yeah and there's ways of counting this Move down finished the problem is the Current development the current price
Action here which would rather suggest That this is actually the Wave 4 and we Will come down once more in the in the Fifth wave right so a bit like that Um it's not entirely clear Um it all depends on I think in which Direction we're going to break out from The switch And basically then when we go below the 108 level then we are pretty much ready To make a new lobular 105 so Unfortunately there isn't much support Beforehand but if you look at this wedge Pattern you can actually already say That let's say we drop down Um this could be in the bullish Interpretation already a leading Diagonal to the upside But even with these Wicks here it Doesn't look very strong so should we Come down now basically if we look at The FIB levels we need to hold the 111 Dollar level if we get below that well I Think then we we can retest the 105 and We'll probably drop below it but Primarily I would see this actually as a Correction and then come down the way This is developed in the last hour as Well because this really looks like a Wedge yeah which could be a leading Diagonal but the strong rejection up Here at 135 dollars doesn't really Suggest that there is a lot of strength In this but we need to be open to the
Idea because the pattern to the downside Could be full basically what I can help You to understand is that Um what would be the like the reversal Signal the reversal signal for me would Be a break above the 135 dollar level Which is this resistance if we get back Into the channel here and break above The 135 dollar level that would be quite A sign of strength and then we can take It from there but that would be really Really good A reversal signal also it if We now come down and hold the 111 level That would be another possible entry Point right and then we could start from Scratch and move up in a in a beer Basically in a breakout pattern But until we really see that things are Rather uncertain here what I don't like Is the morphing of different target Areas into each other I don't really Like that because it means we are sort Of don't really have a clear cut Um Scenario and if you if you have a bit of Uh uncertainty in the chart it's always Good to look at other things like in This case support levels and patterns Like an ascending wedge which isn't Really a bullish pattern so I would be Surprised if we go up from here straight Away I think there will be a retracement Either way it should be either in a Corrective fashion where we then hold
The 111 level or we make actually a new Low and of course I cannot rule out a Direct breakout to the upside but that Would certainly be a sign of Really really strength right and then we Have a really good chance to be back Straight away into a bull run Um but primarily I would be looking here Now at the move down again either Holding the 78.6 FIB level or making a New low but then the next one could be The last one right so this wave five so I keep you updated about Quant hope you Like the update if you did please hit The like button leave a comment and Subscribe and if you really like the Content then please check out the Channel membership thanks a lot for Watching bye Thank you